Matt Duyst

Matt Duyst
Environmental Data Scientist, Machine Learning
Austin, TXcatch a vibe

About

The Sierra Nevada stands at the eastern edge of the valley where I grew up, on a small citrus farm near Sequoia National Park.

The orchards there depend on snow that falls in those mountains every winter and melts down into the valley months later: a dry winter in the Sierra shows up as a hard summer on the valley floor. Growing up there, you get used to the idea that what changes the land under your feet is often happening somewhere you can't see.

That's probably why satellite imagery hooked me at UCLA. I studied geography and environmental studies there, with minors in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and English, and spent a lot of those years learning to read land from above: mapping burn severity after the 2018 Mendocino Complex fires from Landsat, looking through cloud and smoke with radar, building terrain out of elevation data. The English minor shaped how I read maps as much as books. Close reading trains you to notice what a text claims and what it quietly leaves out, and maps reward the same attention, because every one is a set of choices about what to show and what to drop. Every map is biased; it makes a visual argument about what matters, and I came out of UCLA caring about that argument as much as the imagery underneath it.

At Yale I wanted to understand what land does to the air: the greenhouse gases it takes in and gives off. My thesis followed the Yangtze River Delta over about two decades as its rice paddies gave way to cities, which matters because both give off methane. I mapped that change from Landsat and global land-cover data, used spatial statistics to see where the methane in the air was clustering, and designed a deep learning model to try to predict it from the land underneath. One summer took me to northern Minnesota, to a flux tower standing over a peat bog in the Marcell Experimental Forest. It measures the methane and carbon dioxide moving between the bog and the air many times a second, and I spent that summer working out what drives those fluxes and forecasting them with time-series and machine learning models. Closer to campus, I flew a drone with a thermal camera over the solar array on Yale's West Campus, reading the temperature of every panel at once to map how efficiently each one was running and flag the ones that might need repair.

My interests have a way of turning into side quests. On a whim I entered a Global Stocktake Climate Datathon ahead of COP 27 and built a tool that takes a sector's emissions under cap-and-trade from 2005 to 2021 and projects them out to 2030: you set how fast its allowances shrink each year and watch what happens to the emissions. Ours was one of four entries the judges recognized, with an honorable mention, alongside teams founded by start-ups and a multi-institutional international group. Not too shabby for a team of two: me and a buddy from the gym.

After Yale I wanted to be closer to where emissions actually come from, so I went into industry, and by choice into start-ups, where sensor technology, remote sensing, and machine learning meet, and the work is funded to solve a real problem for a real company. SeekOps, spun out of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, works with oil and gas operators, and for the first time I wasn't studying emissions from a distance. We flew drones carrying laser sensors through the plumes coming off flares in the Bakken and Permian basins to measure how much methane was slipping through unburned. Getting a drone into the right part of a plume is its own puzzle, so I built object detection models that pick out wellheads, compressors, storage tanks, and flare stacks from imagery of a site, and used what they found to plan where the drone should fly.

Now I'm at Grassroots Carbon, which works with ranchers on the carbon in their land, and it's an unusual place to be. Grasslands hold about a fifth of the world's soil carbon, and much of it has been lost to overgrazing and conversion to cropland, which makes working ranchland one of the places where carbon can go back into the ground, through the people already managing it. Grazing done with care, with herds moved often enough that pasture has time to recover, can rebuild some of what was lost. Whether that's worth anything, to the climate or to the rancher being paid for it, depends on measuring it well, and that's my job. On the modeling side, it means process-based models that follow the grass through its year, from green-up through senescence in the fall, and track how carbon moves from those plants down into the soil, with machine learning correcting them against what the land actually did. On the data side, it means the pipelines that bring satellite imagery, soil samples, and weather records into the cloud and onto one shared spatial grid, so every ranch is measured the same way.

At a glance

The route so far.

A map you drive. Press play to travel the route in time order, or pick a stop. Zoom, pan, and read as you go; nothing here waits on the page scroll.

Play the route, or drag and zoom
 
2014201620182020202220242026
Selected projects

Projects.

One question runs through all of it: how well can what happens on the land be measured from above? The work moves across scales, from satellite estimates of carbon on about three million acres of rangeland and methane over a river delta of 150 million people, through drone surveys of gas flares and solar arrays, to a single tower in a Minnesota peatland measured half-hour by half-hour. Each project carries its figures and code where they can be shown. The oldest are the maps that taught the craft.

  1. Grassland growth across US rangeland for soil carbon verification
    2025
    Grassroots Carbon · process-based light use efficiency with a machine-learning correction
    2025 to present
    Status publications forthcoming
    Figures forthcoming.
  2. Methane Destruction Removal Efficiency Assessment in US Shale Basins Using UAV-Based TDLAS Measurements
    2024
    Duyst, K. M., and Smith, B. J. · SeekOps
    SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 2024 · SPE-221067-MS
    Figures forthcoming.
  3. Urban expansion, paddy rice, and atmospheric methane over the Yangtze River Delta
    2023
    Yale School of the Environment, Lee lab · Landsat-derived land cover, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI
    MESc thesis, 2023
    Reproduction Reproduced 2026, with errata
    • The four Yangtze River Delta provinces on shaded relief, with a locator, a detail box showing the 0.25 degree analysis cells, and the neighbouring provinces named
      The four provinces on relief, with the 0.25 degree analysis cells.
    • Impervious surface at 30 m from GISA and GAIA, rice at 10 m from NESDC, and the six 0.25 degree cell fractions those become
      What the analysis reads: 30 m impervious, 10 m rice, and the cell they share.
    • Cumulative urban extent by year of first imperviousness for GAIA and GISA to 2019, and four-province totals for the thesis's GAIA figures against both products recomputed
      Where the delta became impervious, and how much, 2000 to 2019.
  4. Forecasting and reconstructing monthly methane flux at Marcell Bog Lake Peatland
    2022
    University of Minnesota, Griffis lab · AmeriFlux US-MBP, 2009 to 2024
    Visiting Research Scientist, 2022
    Reproduction Rebuilt 2026
    • The flux tower and the wind directions it measures
      The flux tower, its wetland, and the wind sectors it keeps.
    • Which months each measurement and each analysis cover
      Which months each record covers, and where the model could run.
    • The seasonal cycle in monthly flux
      The seasonal shape of the record, and what each year leaves over.
    • Monthly methane and carbon dioxide forecast error
      Fitted models rarely beat the seasonal average at any horizon.
    • Observed and predicted monthly flux
      Forecasts follow the seasonal cycle; the size of each season escapes them.
    • Which measurements the models used
      Which inputs the models chose, against what the date already explains.
    • Prediction error by year
      Prediction error by year: similar misses, in varying directions.
    • Monthly water table elevation
      Water table beyond the fitted range, where the backcast must assume.
    • The water table coefficient refitted on drier months
      The water table coefficient climbs as the fit is restricted to drier months.
    • Reconstructed methane emission
      Reconstructed emission, 1990 to 2008, under three assumptions.
    • Diagnostic check on model errors
      The model's errors against two distributions, weighted and unweighted.
  5. Carbon trading: a cross-sectoral analysis of allowance pathways under the EU ETS
    2022
    Duyst, Bhardwaj · Global Stocktake Climate Datathon
    2022, ahead of COP 27
  6. Toward UAV decision-support tools for photovoltaic arrays: a coastal Connecticut thermal mosaicking case study
    2021
    Anthony, Duyst, Verheyden, Zhao · Yale ENV 704
    Course research
    Status Report published
    • Yale University’s West Campus PV Building
      This diagram depicts the study area and PV solar arrays within four scales.
    • Solar Panel Measurement Locations
      Temperature and GPS measurements were taken at these 12 solar panels.
    • RGB Orthomosaic
      Agisoft Metashape was used to generate this RGB orthomosaic.
    • Thermal Orthomosaic
      Agisoft Metashape was used to generate this thermal orthomosaic.
    • Digital Number Values Captured by Thermal Sensor vs Manual Hand-Held Readings
      The linear regression model was consistent within the same data acquisition and processing techniques.
  7. Thirty coursework projects and the undergraduate thesis
    2014 to 2018
    UCLA Geography · 2014 to 2018
    Archive
    Remote Sensing · 1 of 31

Experience

  1. Grassroots Carbon2025 to present

    Environmental Data Scientist, Machine Learning

    Grassroots Carbon · Austin and San Antonio, TX

    Grassroots Carbon pays ranchers for the carbon their land stores when they change how they graze it, and sells that carbon as credits to companies such as Microsoft and Boeing. Measuring that carbon is the center of the company's science.

    data:soil organic carbon coresBLM AIM field plots (TerrADat)GrassCast productivity forecastsRangeland Analysis Platform (RAP)Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS)AlphaEarth Foundations embeddingsMODIS productivity and phenologygridMET weatherOpen-Meteo weatherPRISM climate normalsPOLARIS soil propertiesgSSURGO soil survey3DEP elevationNational Land Cover Database (NLCD)NRCS land resource regions (MLRA, LRR)IPCC climate zonesNEON and AmeriFlux research sites for validation
    methods:light use efficiency (LUE) modelingcounterfactual baselinesgrowing-season efficiency calibrationtemperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) stress scalarsgrowing degree day (GDD) residual diagnosticsrandom forest biomass modelingallometric biomass estimationbounded residual correctioncausally constrained featuresspatial and temporal cross-validationcreditable depth modelingsampling stratificationSoil Enrichment Protocol (CAR-SEP)Verra VM0042Regenerative Standard
    tools:PythonpandasNumPyscikit-learnGeoPandasxarrayRasterioDaskDuckDBParquetSTAC catalogsMicrosoft Planetary ComputerOPeNDAPAWS S3Cloud Optimized GeoTIFF (COG)Uber H3pytestGitHubMatplotlib
  2. SeekOps2024

    Environmental Data Scientist

    SeekOps · Austin, TX

    SeekOps is a start-up spun out of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that measures methane for oil and gas operators with sensors carried on drones. Flares are meant to burn methane off, and the operators' question is how much gets through unburned.

    data:tunable diode laser spectroscopy (TDLAS)flare inflow telemetryultrasonic anemometersRTK ground stationsAirData flight telemetryLiDAR surface modelsdrone aerial imagery
    methods:destruction removal efficiency (DRE)mass balance emission ratesNavier-Stokes plume modelingterrain and surface roughness correctionwind vector validationobject detection (YOLOv8)transfer learningpredictive emissions modelingleak detection and repair (LDAR)Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) and EPA reporting
    tools:PythonPyTorchFoliumPlotly DashQGISArcGIS Pro
  3. Minnesotasummer 2022

    Visiting Research Scientist

    University of Minnesota · St. Paul, MN

    Northern Minnesota is peat country, and the Marcell Experimental Forest has been watching it longer than almost anyone: the Forest Service has run research there since the early 1960s, and a tower in its Bog Lake Peatland has measured the carbon dioxide moving between the peat and the air since 2007, and the methane since 2009, many times a second. That record is part of the AmeriFlux network, and it was the reason for a summer in Tim Griffis's lab.

    data:eddy covariance flux towermethane and carbon dioxide fluxes3D sonic anemometersgreenhouse gas analyzerssoil and air temperatureprecipitationAmeriFlux site US-MBP
    methods:correlation analysisordinary least squares (OLS) regressiontime series decompositionfeature importanceSARIMAX forecastingProphet forecastinggradient boosting (LightGBM, XGBoost)ensemble stackingerror-based model selection (MAPE)autocorrelation and stationarity testsAmeriFlux protocols
  4. Cydcor2019 to 2020

    Geospatial Analyst

    Cydcor · Los Angeles, CA

    Cydcor runs door-to-door and business-to-business sales campaigns, and the question it brought to a geographer was where the next ones should go. Working directly with the company's leadership, I joined census demographics to its own sales records and modeled the map that came out of them: interpolating between the neighborhoods already known to find the ones most likely to respond, extending the model to markets the company had never entered, and automating the geocoding with batch processing and validation so thousands of addresses could be placed and checked at once.

    data:census tract demographicsinternal sales metricsGoogle Geocoding API
    methods:kriging and spatial interpolationspatial regressionweighted overlaybatch geocoding and validation
    tools:ArcGISPython

Education

  1. Yale2021 to 2023

    MESc, Machine Learning, Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics

    Yale School of the Environment · The Lee Lab · New Haven, CT

    Two years in Xuhui Lee's lab, which studies how land, air, and people act on one another, on one large question: when land use changes, how does the methane above it change with it? The Yangtze River Delta made the case.

    data:Sentinel-5P methane (TROPOMI)Landsat archive (TM, ETM+, OLI)global urban extent (GAIA)paddy rice mapping (PPPM)vegetation and water indices (NDVI, EVI, LSWI)China provincial agricultural statisticsdrone thermal and RGB imagery
    methods:land cover classificationhot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*)spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I)semantic segmentation (DeepLabV3+, ResNet50)thermal and RGB image fusionphotogrammetrymultivariate statisticsregression modeling
    tools:Google Earth EnginePyTorchscikit-imageOpenCVGoogle ColabAgisoft MetashapeMATLAB
  2. UCLA2014 to 2018

    BA, Geography and Environmental Studies; minors in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and English

    UCLA · Los Angeles, CA

    UCLA's geography department asks three questions of anything on the map: where it is, why it's there, and what that location does to it. The environmental studies side of the degree turns those questions on the systems that shape the planet and on how people live within them.

    data:Landsat 8 imagerysynthetic aperture radar (SAR)digital elevation models (DEM)
    methods:supervised and unsupervised classificationvegetation and burn indices (NDVI, NBR, dNBR)change detectionspatial interpolationspatial autocorrelationpredictive modelingcartographic design
    tools:ENVIGoogle Earth EngineArcGISQGISspatial SQL

Awards + fellowships

  1. 2021 to 2023

    Merit Research Scholar and Dean's Scholar

    Full funding for the master's, awarded each year to a limited number of the school's top applicants.

    Yale School of the EnvironmentNew Haven, CT

  2. 2022

    Honorable Mention, Global Stocktake Climate Datathon

    Recognized by an expert panel as one of four entries from more than 100 participants in 30 countries: a tool, built by a team of two, that projects European cap-and-trade emissions out to 2030.

    Data-Driven EnviroLab, UNC-Chapel HillOpenEarth Foundation

  3. 2022

    Hixon Center for Urban Sustainability Fellow

    Funding for the Yangtze study of how the methane above the delta shifts as its cities spread over the rice paddies, one of a handful of student projects the center backs each year on how cities grow and are run.

    Yale School of the EnvironmentNew Haven, CT

  4. 2019

    Poster and lightning talk, Los Angeles Geospatial Summit

    Chosen by a faculty committee to present the Mendocino Complex fire study at the institute's annual conference, alongside student work from six universities.

    USC Spatial Sciences InstituteLos Angeles, CA

  5. 2017 to 2018

    Undergraduate Research Scholars Program

    A year of original research with a faculty mentor, Nick Burkhart in the geography department, that grew into the undergraduate thesis.

    UCLALos Angeles, CA

  6. 2014 to 2018

    Regents Scholar

    Awarded on admission by a faculty committee for academic achievement and promise, and held through all four years.

    UCLALos Angeles, CA

Research

Research themes.

Measuring what you cannot see directly

Methane from a satellite column, biomass from reflectance, combustion from a plume. Every project infers a quantity the instrument never touches, and has to say how well.

Two sources rarely agree

Satellites, drones, towers, and field samples were each built for their own purpose, at their own resolution and revisit. Everything downstream rests on reconciling them into one measurement you can rely on.

Ground the model was never trained on

What happens when a model leaves its training region, year, or ecosystem, and whether it can be honest about where it cannot answer. Physics-constrained structure and foundation models are the two levers.

Checkable science

A result earns trust by being reproducible, not by who produced it. Each project is published with its code, and its data where they can be shared, and an errata where the reproduction disagrees with the original.

Methods and toolsPython, R, SQL · PyTorch, TensorFlow, scikit-learn, XGBoost, LightGBM · Google Earth Engine, GDAL, Rasterio, GeoPandas · QGIS, ArcGIS Pro · Landsat, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI, LiDAR, UAV photogrammetry · eddy covariance, spatial statistics, time series forecasting · Docker, Azure
Code & data

Open repositories.

Peatland-Flux-Forecasting

Monthly methane and carbon dioxide flux at Marcell Bog Lake Peatland, 2009 to 2024: forecasts against seasonal benchmarks and a backward reconstruction.
AmeriFlux US-MBPgithub ↑

Yangtze-Landcover-Methane

A 2023 thesis preserved as submitted, a 2026 reproduction with a working pipeline, and an errata recording where they disagree.
Landsat, TROPOMIgithub ↑

Carbon-Trading

Sector emissions and allowance pathways under the EU ETS, with a Dash tool for user-set allowance decay rates.
EU ETS, 2005 to 2021github ↑